1. Why is production forecasting so important to a food service operation?
2. Why should the prior year and the past five weeks' sales history be considered in preparing a production forecast?
3. What is a standardized recipe?
4. What is a recipe yield?
5. How can a recipe yield be changed?
6. What is the procedure for developing a recipe cost?
7. What is the procedure for determining a portion cost?
8. Why is portion control so important to a food service operation?
9. Sales History: The following are the customer counts for lunch for the past five Thursdays.
Week Customer Count
Last year on this date, the customer count for lunch was 57.
a. What general information can be developed from this sales history?
b. Is the sales history from last year useful in this case?
c. Using the last five weeks' customer counts, what is the forecast for customers for next Thursday?
10. Forecasted sales: Use the forecasted customer count from problem 9c and the following sales percentages:
Lunch Menu Sales Percentage
Item 1 18%
Item 2 29%
Item 3 37%
Item 4 16%
a. What is the sales forecast for each of these menu items?
b. Based on the forecasted menu item sales, and an original recipe yield for each item of 8, what is the multiplier/ conversion factor for each menu item recipe?
11. Recipe cost: Using the following recipe quantities and product cost:
Example Recipe Yield: 20 portions
Quantity Product Item Cost
2 lbs. Ground beef $ 1.59 per pound
3 lbs. Dry kidney beans $ 0.69 per pound 1 lb. Onions $ 0.59 per pound .5 lb. Green chili peppers $ 0.89 per pound a. What is the cost for this recipe?
b. What is the cost per portion?
c. What is the recipe cost if we add 2 percent for seasonings?
d. What is the new portion cost?
PRODUCTION PLANNING AND CONTROL REVIEW PROBLEMS f7 1 37
Production Planning and Control Review Answers
1. Production forecasting increases the operations planning and control. It creates a smarter purchasing and scheduling routine.
2. Past sales history contains valuable information about customer count and menu item selection.
3. A standardized recipe is a list of quantities, ingredients, and preparation methods that, if followed, produce a consistent product with a consistent yield and a consistent cost.
4. A recipe yield is the quantity of product that a recipe produces. The yield can be a certain quantity, like 2 gallons, or a number of portions.
5. A recipe yield can be changed by adjusting all of the ingredients by an equal amount. The adjustment amount is determined by the following formula:
————— = Multiplier or conversion factor Old yield F
6. A recipe cost is determined by multiplying each ingredient by its AP price per unit.
7. A portion cost is determined by dividing a recipe cost by its yield in portions.
8. Portion control is important in food service because our forecast, purchasing, recipe cost, portion cost, and menu price are based on the portion sizes developed.
9. Sales history a. Business has picked up over the last three Thursdays.
b. No, because the customer count is lower than the past five Thursdays.
c. Develop an average for the last five weeks:
= 84.6 rounded to 85
10. Forecasted sales:
a. Item 1: 85 (customer count) X .18 (18%) = 15.3 rounded to 16
Item 2: 85 (customer count) X .29 (29%) = 24.7 rounded to 25
Item 3: 85 (customer count) X .37 (37%) = 31.5 rounded to 32
Item 4: 85 (customer count) X .16 (16%) = 13.6 rounded to 14
Total: 87 due to rounding b. Recipe yield multiplier/conversion factor Item 1: 16 / 8 = 2 Item 2: 25 / 8 = 3.125 Item 3: 32 / 8 = 4 Item 4: 14 / 8 = 1.75
11. Recipe cost:
a. Ground beef 2 lbs. X $1.59 per pound = $3.18 Kidney beans 3 lbs. X $0.69 per pound = $2.07 Onions 1 lb. X $0.59 per pound = $0.59 Chili peppers .5 lb. X $0.89 per pound = $0.445
Total Recipe Cost: $6.285
b. $6.285 (recipe cost) / 20 (portions) = $0.314 cost per portion c. $6.285 X 1.02 (102%) = $6.41 Recipe cost with seasonings added as 2% of total d. $6.41 (new recipe cost) / 20 (portions) = $0.32 cost per portion
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